Beyond Border Standoffs, Brewing Indo-China “ Water” Disputes and The New National Security Agenda

Keerty Dabas, Ph.D. scholar, Faculty of Law, Delhi University

Beyond Border Standoffs,  Brewing  Indo-China “ Water” Disputes and The New National Security Agenda

India is being triangulated on its borders with unswerving  Pakistan, more aggressive China and now Nepal, who recently in a  unilateral move published its new political map claiming within itself certain   Indian territories. Enshroud therein lies a much greater threat to the regional stability of the Indian subcontinent, that of looming shared water disputes and a  potential water war.

A river which disobeys the diktats of the international border and flows through multiple sovereign states is termed as a “transboundary river” i.e a  shared water resource.  For instance, a  river originating from Tibet( China)  known as  “ Yarlung Taspango”, flows into the Indian  Assam valley to be revered as “ The Brahmaputra”, then it reaches Bangladesh and finally flows through it as river Meghna and drains into the Bay of Bengal.

This river forms part of one of the largest river basin in the Indian subcontinent namely   -the Brahmaputra and Ganges and Meghna ( the GBM ), which is being shared between the three most populous developing nations i.e India, China and  Bangladesh (  making them co-riparian states). Then there is the Indus river basin interlinking  China, India, Pakistan and Afghanistan  (  one largest river basin in the world and comprising Satluj, Beas, Ravi, Chenab and  Jhelum rivers, lastly there is  Kosi, Gandaki, and Mahakali rivers which join Nepal with India. These transboundary rivers and related issues of water rights have been shaping culture, history, economy and regional politics in South Asia interlinking income and livelihood of millions of people who are interdependent on the water that is being shared between them.

However, the Indian subcontinent is volatile given its many border disputes, terrorism and existing water disputes. These challenges are set to be accentuated due to the fact that the region is getting hotter, more crowded, and thirsty. As trends suggest, India is expected to become ‘Water Stressed’ by 2025 and ‘Water Scarce’ by 2050.  By 2030, water demand in India will grow to almost 1.5 trillion m3, against this, there is an approximately  50% gap between water demand and supply. Climate change, melting glaciers, rising energy demand with exploding population, lackadaisical environment norms, water pollution, incessant infrastructure development like hydropower projects,  damns and reservoirs, illegal groundwater abstraction and inefficient water management of the shared water,  will only worsen the present water crisis and fuel more water conflicts in near future.

Moreover, the co-riparian nations are unequal in size and there is asymmetric power parity given their relative position in the river basin. The crucial geopolitical advantage lies with China as it is the uppermost riparian state vis-a-vis other riparian states due to its control over the autonomous Tibetan plateau from which both Indus and Brahmaputra river system originates.   India is the middle riparian state in this context and with respect to Kosi and Gandak rivers, India is lower riparian vis-a-vis Nepal.

HYDROPOLITICS AND NEW NATIONAL SECURITY AGENDA

This relative riparian position and control over shared water are giving a new dimension to the hydro politics in the region. Water is now becoming a means of gaining leverage and putting coercive diplomatic pressure on each other. For example, after 2017 Doklam border standoff between China and India, China stopped sharing crucial hydrological data on the Brahmaputra related to the water level of the river that is used to create flood alerts in Assam. India used its relative riparian status in the Indus river system to build pressure on Pakistan after the terrorist attack in Uri that claimed the lives of at least 20 Indian soldiers. Prime Minister Narendra Modi had declared that “blood and water” couldn’t flow together and suspended India’s participation in the Permanent Indus Commission, where India and Pakistan regularly meet to discuss sharing of waters in the Indus river basin system.

Thus  Indus and GBM river systems are the jugular veins of the subcontinent and now have taken shape of strategic tool forming new national security agenda of the 21st century beyond territorial and military frameworks.

 It is pertinent to note that where does have bilateral water-sharing treaties and agreements with most of its co-riparians such as the Indus water treaty of 1960 between India and Pakistan, Ganges Treaty (1966) between India and Bangladesh for water sharing of the Ganges at Farakka Barrage during the dry season; Mahakali Treaty (1966) between Nepal and India.

However, India doesn’t have any kind of water-sharing agreement with china except a memorandum of understanding regarding the exchange of hydrological information of the river Brahmaputra and Sutlej like its Water Level, Discharge and Rainfall essential to predict floods in the region.  India has been hesitant and has reflected its insecurity to give a formal upper riparian status to china. This is due to the aggressive and predatory nature of china who is projecting a negative hegemonic position in the region. What should worry us is that China is running out of water due to its “grow the first cleanup later” policy of development, the  Chinese pattern of developing dams  ( almost 90000 dams have been built across China), Chinese water struggle- polluted rivers, parched and drought-ridden north china. It’s a thirst for water to cause it to start a massive project of “diverting south water to the north” to Beijing. South-North Water Transfer Project will channel approx. 44.8 billion cubic meters of freshwater annually from the Yangtze River in southern China to the more arid and industrialized north through three canal systems.

A country trying to divert the water supply of one entire sub-continent –  almost amounts to waging defacto water war.  Lower riparian are helpless against the mighty upper riparian and India, in this case, is playing at both the positions.  India is also not far behind in taming the Himalayan waters by building several projects in Arunachal Pradesh creating fear in Bangladesh who solely rely on Brahmaputra River. A water war does not need an army, it is being fought by creating dams. One has not even taken into account the loss to the environment, water migrants or refugee, pollution and waste of water resources and ecological degradation these types of project can cause to the water resource itself.

HYDROCOPERATION THROUGH WATER SHARING AGREEMENTS

The hydrologic reality of the South Asian region strongly dictates that we move towards hydro-cooperation. The best possible means of optimizing trans-boundary river waters and mitigating the threat future water disputes is by adopting The Convention on the Law of the Non-Navigational Uses of International watercourses1977., which has now codified the contemporary principles of allocation of shared water resource between two or more states and calls for peaceful dispute settlement.

The UN Convention on shared waters in spirit speaks for ‘equitable utilization of water resources’ and ‘meeting vital human needs’(Article 10 of the convention). It puts an obligation on the co –riparian states to not to cause significant harm, a duty to cooperate,  exchange information and mutual consultation. Most importantly it calls for establishing joint commissions and institutions for mediation. But none of the South Asian countries are parties to the 1977 UN convention on shared waters.  Interestingly the document also promotes harmonizing and modelling the existing and future water agreement in accordance with its principles, thus reservations with respect to ratifying the document become a non-issue if one simply adopts it as a blueprint.

It is suggested that India should  reconsider its existing water agreements and  reorient its  policy on shared waters according to the convention considering impending water crisis  and climate change. What is even more vital for India’s interest that china effectively participates and cooperate through some form of bilateral and multilateral water-sharing agreement. South Asia as a region needs a change in approach – from “sharing waters” to “sharing benefits” which will serve all co-riparian states.