Covid-19 & Climate Change: Reduced Carbon Emission is no Silver Lining

Covid-19 & Climate Change: Reduced Carbon Emission is no Silver Lining

Keerty Dabas | Ph.D. scholar, Faculty of Law, Delhi University. | 11th May 2020

The Covid -19 pandemic has shuttered world economies ,  put livelihoods at peril ,and exposed humans to grave and fatal  health risks . However , governments across the globe have demonstrated exceptional political will and  international coordination in times of this public health crisis. Due to  reduced human stress on environment –  people are breathing cleaner air ,some  have witnessed  the Dhauladhar mountains range from outskirts of  Punjab due to reduced air pollution , a cleaner Ganga river is reported  and dolphins are spotted in Venice backwaters .As the nature reclaimed its space , the wild roam free on empty streets now.

Covid-19 is  also collaterally impacting carbon emissions. Global carbon emissions from the fossil fuel industry are  projected to fall by a record 2.5bn tonnes this year,  almost  5%, reduction  as the Covid-19 pandemic triggers a drop in demand for fossil fuel.[1] International Energy Agency (IEA) has  predicted a fall of 8% CO2 emissions as global economy is shut down .[2]Whereas China’s carbon emissions fell by around 25% over a four-week period ( feburaray 2020 ), equivalent to around 200m tonnes of CO2 (MtCO2).[3]

However , here is why  these predictions should not be considered  a  triumph over  climate crisis :

  1. Emission Rebound As Economy Rebound .

The  current emission reduction  is driven by sudden  reduction in fossil fuel usage which in turn is the resultant of   an   economic slowdown simulated by Covid -19 pandemic . The health risk from virus  has -forced  millions of people to  be locked down in their home , has closed down  and restricted  production and industrial units and  reduced global energy demand as aviation industry and road transportation comes to  a halt.  

However, once the economies start recovering , the emissions will rise too as both are interlinked. For instance,  the global financial crisis of 2008  also saw  reduction in global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel usage and cement production  by 1.4 percent, but it again  got raised  by 5.9 percent in 2010.[4]

Post lockdown it can be expected that people may shun public transportation for private vehicles increasing the demand for oil. Moreover, if recession sets in due to Covid-19   , one can also expect many countries compromising on their environment regulations and standards to absorb the shocks and fast pace their economic recovery . As China restarts its industries and India looks towards lifting the lockdown strategically, emissions and pollution   can only  be expected to rise .

  1. Infallible Nature of Carbon Concentrations in Atmosphere.

Temporary reduction in carbon emissions does have little to no impact on the concentrations of carbon dioxide that have already accumulated in the atmosphere over decades. CO2 can remain in atmosphere for years several decades[5] , therefore even if one turns off the emission tap and reach zero emissions  , the atmosphere will  be filled  with large  amount carbon concentrations which has to be absorbed and offset  over several years to reach a balanced carbon budget , ensuring of ‘course that the emission tap remains shut throughout. A situation like this is only utopian in sense.

  1. Derailed Climate Mitigation  and Adaptation Efforts

Restrictions imposed due to Covid-19 has actually derailed climate mitigation effort and  slowed down progress of climate action across the world. The year 2020 was significant  for countries to intensify their efforts and commitments towards climate change action and take their Paris commitments forward, however , many conferences  and meetings, vital for climate change action got postponed or suspended due to Covid-19.

COP26 under Paris agreement which was  scheduled to be  held in Glasgow in November 2020 and  meetings under UN convention on Biodiversity have been postpone given the  risk  posed by Covid-19 to public health and safety[6] .

Renewable energy projects  around the world are facing delays and solar power supply chain has taken a hit . As majority of the solar modules manufacturing units are located in china,  projects which are  under construction have come to a halt due to lockdown as imports get disrupted and air transport and shipping remains shut. As per report it is projected  that India could see over 21.6 per cent or 3 gigawatts (GW) of solar power and wind installations being delayed  if country’s lockdown continues.[7]

Therefore, the sudden decline in carbon emissions owing to COvid-19 can only be said to be extrinsic and temporary which will not have any lasting effect on climate change. Our response to climate crisis essentially requires a structural change in our economies and should be driven by right government policies resulting in a climate resilient future and not by locking people down in their homes.

People are calling the reduced carbon emissions and air pollution as a silver lining in times of distress, however on the downside, the pandemic has actually exposed the direct link between human health and ecological health. We are in fact witnessing the morbid reality of how pervasive and degrading human influence on environment is, that it is only when humans are locked down, nature can recuperate.


[1] Jillian Ambrose, Carbon emissions from fossil fuels could fall by 2.5bn tonnes in 2020,  The Gaurdian,  12 Apr 2020 , https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/apr/12/global-carbon-emisions-could-fall-by-record-25bn-tonnes-in-2020

[2]  See,  analysis of carbon emissions , 30th April 2020,  Carbon brief .org, available at  https://www.carbonbrief.org/iea-coronavirus-impact-on-co2-emissions-six-times-larger-than-financial-crisis

[3] Lauri Myllyvirta , Analysis: Coronavirus temporarily reduced China’s CO2 emissions by a quarter , 19 feb 2020 ,updated on 30th march 2020, https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-coronavirus-has-temporarily-reduced-chinas-co2-emissions-by-a-quarter

[4]see , Peters, G., Marland, G., Le Quéré, C. et al. Rapid growth in CO2 emissions after the 2008–2009 global financial crisis. Nature Clim Change 2, 2–4 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1332

[5] Ciais, P., C. Sabine, G. Bala, L. and P. Thornton, 2013: Carbon and Other Biogeochemical Cycles. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. Available  at https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/

[6] See , COP26 postponed https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/04/1060902 ; Meetings under UN convention on biological diversity  suspended : https://www.cbd.int/doc/press/2020/pr-2020-03-17-meetings-en.pdf

[7] As cited in economic times , energy world ,7th April 2020, available at : https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/renewable/indias-renewables-installation-could-fall-by-a-fifth-due-to-lockdown-wood-mackenzie/75027294

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LexForti Legal News and Journal offer access to a wide array of legal knowledge through the Daily Legal News segment of our Website. It provides the readers with the latest case laws in layman terms. Our Legal Journal contains a vast assortment of resources that helps in understanding contemporary legal issues.

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