Keerty Dabas | Ph.D. scholar, Faculty of Law, Delhi University. | 11th May 2020
The Covid -19 pandemic has shuttered world economies , put livelihoods at peril ,and exposed humans to grave and fatal health risks . However , governments across the globe have demonstrated exceptional political will and international coordination in times of this public health crisis. Due to reduced human stress on environment – people are breathing cleaner air ,some have witnessed the Dhauladhar mountains range from outskirts of Punjab due to reduced air pollution , a cleaner Ganga river is reported and dolphins are spotted in Venice backwaters .As the nature reclaimed its space , the wild roam free on empty streets now.
Covid-19 is also collaterally impacting carbon emissions. Global carbon emissions from the fossil fuel industry are projected to fall by a record 2.5bn tonnes this year, almost 5%, reduction as the Covid-19 pandemic triggers a drop in demand for fossil fuel.[1] International Energy Agency (IEA) has predicted a fall of 8% CO2 emissions as global economy is shut down .[2]Whereas China’s carbon emissions fell by around 25% over a four-week period ( feburaray 2020 ), equivalent to around 200m tonnes of CO2 (MtCO2).[3]
However , here is why these predictions should not be considered a triumph over climate crisis :
- Emission Rebound As Economy Rebound .
The current emission reduction is driven by sudden reduction in fossil fuel usage which in turn is the resultant of an economic slowdown simulated by Covid -19 pandemic . The health risk from virus has -forced millions of people to be locked down in their home , has closed down and restricted production and industrial units and reduced global energy demand as aviation industry and road transportation comes to a halt.
However, once the economies start recovering , the emissions will rise too as both are interlinked. For instance, the global financial crisis of 2008 also saw reduction in global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel usage and cement production by 1.4 percent, but it again got raised by 5.9 percent in 2010.[4]
Post lockdown it can be expected that people may shun public transportation for private vehicles increasing the demand for oil. Moreover, if recession sets in due to Covid-19 , one can also expect many countries compromising on their environment regulations and standards to absorb the shocks and fast pace their economic recovery . As China restarts its industries and India looks towards lifting the lockdown strategically, emissions and pollution can only be expected to rise .
- Infallible Nature of Carbon Concentrations in Atmosphere.
Temporary reduction in carbon emissions does have little to no impact on the concentrations of carbon dioxide that have already accumulated in the atmosphere over decades. CO2 can remain in atmosphere for years several decades[5] , therefore even if one turns off the emission tap and reach zero emissions , the atmosphere will be filled with large amount carbon concentrations which has to be absorbed and offset over several years to reach a balanced carbon budget , ensuring of ‘course that the emission tap remains shut throughout. A situation like this is only utopian in sense.
- Derailed Climate Mitigation and Adaptation Efforts
Restrictions imposed due to Covid-19 has actually derailed climate mitigation effort and slowed down progress of climate action across the world. The year 2020 was significant for countries to intensify their efforts and commitments towards climate change action and take their Paris commitments forward, however , many conferences and meetings, vital for climate change action got postponed or suspended due to Covid-19.
COP26 under Paris agreement which was scheduled to be held in Glasgow in November 2020 and meetings under UN convention on Biodiversity have been postpone given the risk posed by Covid-19 to public health and safety[6] .
Renewable energy projects around the world are facing delays and solar power supply chain has taken a hit . As majority of the solar modules manufacturing units are located in china, projects which are under construction have come to a halt due to lockdown as imports get disrupted and air transport and shipping remains shut. As per report it is projected that India could see over 21.6 per cent or 3 gigawatts (GW) of solar power and wind installations being delayed if country’s lockdown continues.[7]
Therefore, the sudden decline in carbon emissions owing to COvid-19 can only be said to be extrinsic and temporary which will not have any lasting effect on climate change. Our response to climate crisis essentially requires a structural change in our economies and should be driven by right government policies resulting in a climate resilient future and not by locking people down in their homes.
People are calling the reduced carbon emissions and air pollution as a silver lining in times of distress, however on the downside, the pandemic has actually exposed the direct link between human health and ecological health. We are in fact witnessing the morbid reality of how pervasive and degrading human influence on environment is, that it is only when humans are locked down, nature can recuperate.
[1] Jillian Ambrose, Carbon emissions from fossil fuels could fall by 2.5bn tonnes in 2020, The Gaurdian, 12 Apr 2020 , https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/apr/12/global-carbon-emisions-could-fall-by-record-25bn-tonnes-in-2020
[2] See, analysis of carbon emissions , 30th April 2020, Carbon brief .org, available at https://www.carbonbrief.org/iea-coronavirus-impact-on-co2-emissions-six-times-larger-than-financial-crisis
[3] Lauri Myllyvirta , Analysis: Coronavirus temporarily reduced China’s CO2 emissions by a quarter , 19 feb 2020 ,updated on 30th march 2020, https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-coronavirus-has-temporarily-reduced-chinas-co2-emissions-by-a-quarter
[4]see , Peters, G., Marland, G., Le Quéré, C. et al. Rapid growth in CO2 emissions after the 2008–2009 global financial crisis. Nature Clim Change 2, 2–4 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1332
[5] Ciais, P., C. Sabine, G. Bala, L. and P. Thornton, 2013: Carbon and Other Biogeochemical Cycles. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. Available at https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/
[6] See , COP26 postponed https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/04/1060902 ; Meetings under UN convention on biological diversity suspended : https://www.cbd.int/doc/press/2020/pr-2020-03-17-meetings-en.pdf
[7] As cited in economic times , energy world ,7th April 2020, available at : https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/renewable/indias-renewables-installation-could-fall-by-a-fifth-due-to-lockdown-wood-mackenzie/75027294
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